Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 226 BOS 07:25 → IAH 10:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 1392 BOS 17:35 → IAH 20:55 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 226 United Flight history →	BOS 07:25	IAH 10:35	6%	2%	0.5%	94%
UA 396 United	BOS 10:15	IAH 13:05	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1976 United Flight history →	BOS 13:37	IAH 16:57	9%	2%	0.5%	90%
B6 2033 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 09:15	IAH 12:23	12%	3%	0.6%	73%
UA 1183 United Flight history →	BOS 15:54	IAH 19:08	13%	3%	0.5%	71%
UA 1392 United Flight history →	BOS 17:35	IAH 20:55	15%	4%	0.5%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON