Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 21%, against 7% on a calm day. Safest: B6 109 at 07:05, 13%.

Safest bet that day B6 109 BOS 07:05 → JAX 09:56 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest B6 509 BOS 13:02 → JAX 15:55 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Weather 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 109 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 07:05	JAX 09:56	13%	3%	1.9%	85%
DL 5597 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 08:50	JAX 11:44	20%	3%	1.3%	83%
DL 5593 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 20:35	JAX 23:39	23%	8%	2.3%	71%
DL 5657 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 15:35	JAX 18:41	23%	6%	2.7%	76%
B6 509 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 13:02	JAX 15:55	23%	6%	3.2%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON