Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 9–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day B6 1177 BOS 10:33 → LAS 13:15 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest B6 1577 BOS 08:07 → LAS 10:54 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1177 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 10:33	LAS 13:15	9%	3%	0.6%	87%
B6 177 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 18:36	LAS 21:32	9%	5%	0.6%	68%
B6 1577 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:07	LAS 10:54	11%	3%	0.6%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	1h 09m Minneapolis	MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262	7h 36m	98%	93%
Delta Details →	BOS 07:10 → MSP 09:22DL 1138	1h 48m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238	8h 16m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019	1h 21m Detroit	DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334	7h 42m	98%	91%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON