Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 11 nonstops are 7–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day B6 287 BOS 06:00 → LAX 09:09 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 1578 BOS 17:33 → LAX 20:55 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 287 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 06:00	LAX 09:09	7%	2%	0.6%	85%
B6 1487 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 11:00	LAX 14:09	8%	3%	0.6%	77%
AA 2455 American Flight history →	BOS 07:00	LAX 10:19	8%	2%	0.6%	87%
UA 360 United Flight history →	BOS 07:30	LAX 10:44	9%	2%	0.6%	92%
AA 2141 American	BOS 10:31	LAX 13:39	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
B6 687 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 07:40	LAX 10:50	10%	2%	0.6%	87%
B6 1187 JetBlue	BOS 15:56	LAX 19:00	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 233 United	BOS 14:50	LAX 17:45	10%	4%	0.5%	no record
B6 387 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 18:03	LAX 21:25	10%	5%	0.6%	69%
UA 639 United Flight history →	BOS 00:04	LAX 03:07	11%	3%	0.6%	67%
AA 1578 American Flight history →	BOS 17:33	LAX 20:55	15%	5%	0.6%	67%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102	8h 15m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	BOS 06:05 → JFK 07:30DL 2611	1h 30m New York	JFK 09:00 → LAX 11:54DL 773	8h 49m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	BOS 09:15 → DTW 11:24DL 1748	1h 26m Detroit	DTW 12:50 → LAX 14:35DL 634	8h 20m	97%	90%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON