Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 4715 at 23:15, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 4715 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 23:15	MDT 00:50	9%	3%	0.6%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Harrisburg on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 06:45 → ATL 09:34DL 695	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 12:11 → MDT 14:14DL 1354	7h 29m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	BOS 16:30 → ATL 19:38DL 399	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → MDT 23:53DL 1283	7h 23m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	BOS 08:00 → ATL 10:51DL 923	1h 33m Atlanta	ATL 12:24 → MDT 14:19DL 3080	6h 19m	98%	86%
American Details →	BOS 12:02 → CLT 14:13AA 1557	3h 51m Charlotte	CLT 18:04 → MDT 19:41AA 6073 · flown by Piedmont	7h 39m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	BOS 10:15 → ATL 13:04DL 385	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 15:41 → MDT 17:37DL 2857	7h 22m	98%	85%
American Details →	BOS 05:10 → ORD 07:04AA 3324	1h 16m Chicago	ORD 08:20 → MDT 11:12AA 1672	6h 02m	98%	84%
United Details →	BOS 09:50 → ORD 11:43UA 1349	2h 23m Chicago	ORD 14:06 → MDT 17:04UA 533	7h 14m	98%	77%
United Details →	BOS 15:13 → ORD 17:05UA 1475	2h 06m Chicago	ORD 19:11 → MDT 22:03UA 1719	6h 50m	94%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON