Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Memphis on time.

Nonstops that day


DL 5594 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 21:15	MEM 23:35	15%	5%	0.7%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778	8h 02m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	BOS 08:00 → ATL 10:51DL 923	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 14:13 → MEM 14:39DL 1942	7h 39m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	BOS 09:05 → ATL 11:55DL 456	1h 52m Atlanta	ATL 13:47 → MEM 14:11DL 733	6h 06m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	BOS 14:52 → MSP 17:05DL 1127	3h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 20:05 → MEM 22:15DL 4035 · flown by SkyWest	8h 23m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	BOS 10:15 → ATL 13:04DL 385	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 16:37 → MEM 17:02DL 1681	7h 47m	99%	88%
American Details →	BOS 14:39 → DCA 16:43AA 4342 · flown by Republic	3h 54m Washington	DCA 20:37 → MEM 22:14AA 4681 · flown by Republic	8h 35m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	BOS 12:30 → ATL 15:21DL 2779	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 17:53 → MEM 18:16DL 2939	6h 46m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019	1h 08m Detroit	DTW 08:46 → MEM 09:47DL 1627	5h 17m	93%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON