Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1418 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 1418 BOS 05:10 → MIA 08:38 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 1184 BOS 18:16 → MIA 21:44 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1418 American Flight history →	BOS 05:10	MIA 08:38	3%	1%	0.6%	96%
AA 1259 American Flight history →	BOS 08:00	MIA 11:34	6%	2%	0.7%	90%
AA 2247 American Flight history →	BOS 12:44	MIA 16:11	15%	3%	0.7%	76%
DL 776 Delta Flight history →	BOS 15:15	MIA 18:58	19%	6%	0.9%	64%
AA 1184 American	BOS 18:16	MIA 21:44	23%	6%	0.9%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	BOS 16:16 → CLT 18:33AA 885	58m Charlotte	CLT 19:31 → MIA 21:25AA 400	5h 09m	87%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON