Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 5603 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 13:08	MSN 15:03	8%	3%	0.6%	85%
YX 4676 Republic	BOS 20:56	MSN 22:44	10%	5%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Madison on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 09:05 → ATL 11:55DL 456	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 14:47 → MSN 15:51DL 2599	7h 46m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	BOS 10:42 → DCA 12:37DL 5672 · flown by Republic	2h 43m Washington	DCA 15:20 → MSN 16:39DL 5645 · flown by Republic	6h 57m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	2h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 10:12 → MSN 11:19DL 4102 · flown by SkyWest	6h 24m	99%	89%
American Details →	BOS 08:58 → ORD 11:00AA 1239	2h 43m Chicago	ORD 13:43 → MSN 14:42AA 4038 · flown by Envoy	6h 44m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019	47m Detroit	DTW 08:25 → MSN 08:49DL 5205 · flown by Endeavor	4h 19m	94%	88%
American Details →	BOS 11:57 → DCA 13:49AA 4337 · flown by Republic	2h 29m Washington	DCA 16:18 → MSN 17:39AA 4523 · flown by Republic	6h 42m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	BOS 15:10 → ATL 18:10DL 638	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 21:32 → MSN 22:38DL 2144	8h 28m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	59m Atlanta	ATL 09:20 → MSN 10:22DL 2681	5h 52m	96%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON