Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 3–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2303 BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest DL 1098 BOS 17:55 → MSP 20:21 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2303 Delta Flight history →	BOS 05:55	MSP 08:04	3%	2%	0.6%	95%
DL 1138 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:10	MSP 09:22	5%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 1103 Delta Flight history →	BOS 11:50	MSP 14:02	6%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 1308 Delta Flight history →	BOS 08:16	MSP 10:25	7%	2%	0.6%	75%
DL 1127 Delta Flight history →	BOS 14:52	MSP 17:05	8%	2%	0.6%	76%
DL 1098 Delta Flight history →	BOS 17:55	MSP 20:21	11%	3%	0.6%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON