Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 25 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 3324 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 3324 BOS 05:10 → ORD 07:04 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 3160 BOS 19:15 → ORD 20:48 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3324 American Flight history →	BOS 05:10	ORD 07:04	3%	1%	0.6%	92%
UA 1414 United Flight history →	BOS 06:00	ORD 07:58	3%	1%	0.5%	95%
AA 1509 American Flight history →	BOS 07:00	ORD 09:01	5%	2%	0.6%	90%
AA 1239 American Flight history →	BOS 08:58	ORD 11:00	5%	2%	0.6%	93%
UA 1015 United Flight history →	BOS 00:14	ORD 01:47	5%	2%	0.5%	51%
UA 2751 United	BOS 07:54	ORD 09:46	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1349 United Flight history →	BOS 09:50	ORD 11:43	6%	2%	0.5%	87%
UA 503 United Flight history →	BOS 10:35	ORD 12:28	6%	2%	0.5%	86%
DL 2570 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:30	ORD 09:26	6%	2%	0.6%	82%
UA 1732 United Flight history →	BOS 12:30	ORD 14:23	6%	2%	0.5%	85%
AA 2607 American	BOS 10:23	ORD 12:02	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
B6 111 JetBlue	BOS 06:56	ORD 08:42	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 3048 American Flight history →	BOS 12:03	ORD 13:35	9%	3%	0.6%	81%
DL 2816 Delta Flight history →	BOS 12:25	ORD 14:19	9%	2%	0.6%	83%
AA 1563 American Flight history →	BOS 15:19	ORD 17:29	10%	3%	0.6%	52%
AA 547 American Flight history →	BOS 13:22	ORD 15:04	10%	2%	0.6%	74%
UA 1475 United Flight history →	BOS 15:13	ORD 17:05	11%	3%	0.5%	65%
DL 2646 Delta Flight history →	BOS 16:15	ORD 18:19	14%	4%	0.6%	61%
UA 2229 United Flight history →	BOS 21:34	ORD 23:11	15%	4%	0.5%	57%
UA 563 United	BOS 16:57	ORD 18:38	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 2804 Delta Flight history →	BOS 22:35	ORD 00:06	16%	4%	0.6%	47%
B6 811 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 17:10	ORD 19:15	18%	6%	0.6%	58%
AA 1479 American Flight history →	BOS 16:25	ORD 18:08	18%	4%	0.6%	50%
AA 2837 American Flight history →	BOS 18:07	ORD 19:49	22%	5%	0.6%	40%
AA 3160 American	BOS 19:15	ORD 20:48	22%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON