Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 20%, against 8% on a calm day. Safest: AA 2720 at 09:02, 10%.

Safest bet that day AA 2720 BOS 09:02 → MCO 12:12 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1513 BOS 20:16 → MCO 23:32 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Weather 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2720 American	BOS 09:02	MCO 12:12	10%	3%	1.6%	no record
B6 351 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:00	MCO 11:12	11%	3%	1.3%	85%
B6 651 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 10:39	MCO 13:55	14%	4%	1.9%	80%
B6 2251 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 13:22	MCO 16:39	22%	8%	5.1%	75%
DL 2887 Delta Flight history →	BOS 16:47	MCO 19:52	23%	9%	3.2%	73%
B6 251 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 21:30	MCO 00:40	26%	11%	2.7%	52%
B6 451 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 17:55	MCO 21:17	27%	10%	3.6%	53%
DL 1513 Delta Flight history →	BOS 20:16	MCO 23:32	30%	9%	1.9%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON