Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:10, is the safest bet: 94% chance of reaching Portland on time.

Nonstops that day


AS 311 Alaska Flight history →	BOS 09:49	PDX 12:36	10%	2%	0.6%	88%
AS 1319 Alaska Flight history →	BOS 19:13	PDX 22:00	11%	3%	0.7%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	2h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 10:59 → PDX 12:40DL 1661	9h 45m	99%	94%
Delta Details →	BOS 06:05 → SLC 09:17DL 859	1h 58m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	9h 05m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206	10h 28m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	BOS 11:50 → MSP 14:02DL 1103	1h 56m Minneapolis	MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008	8h 45m	98%	92%
United Details →	BOS 09:24 → DEN 11:42UA 647	1h 45m Denver	DEN 13:27 → PDX 15:13UA 2455	8h 49m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019	1h 16m Detroit	DTW 08:54 → PDX 10:36DL 2171	8h 06m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	BOS 13:35 → JFK 15:10DL 5808 · flown by Republic	2h 49m New York	JFK 17:59 → PDX 21:13DL 684	10h 38m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	BOS 06:05 → JFK 07:30DL 2611	1h 00m New York	JFK 08:30 → PDX 11:36DL 1574	8h 31m	98%	91%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON