Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1540 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 5–18%.

Safest bet that day AA 1540 BOS 06:02 → PHL 07:48 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2110 BOS 18:50 → PHL 20:29 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1540 American Flight history →	BOS 06:02	PHL 07:48	3%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 5805 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 10:50	PHL 12:28	4%	1%	0.6%	87%
AA 4643 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 13:02	PHL 14:42	5%	2%	0.6%	80%
B6 1159 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 07:06	PHL 08:36	5%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 5610 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 22:00	PHL 23:53	5%	2%	0.7%	57%
DL 5706 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 15:10	PHL 16:53	6%	2%	0.6%	78%
DL 5714 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 17:20	PHL 19:15	7%	3%	0.6%	66%
B6 2459 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 16:13	PHL 17:58	7%	3%	0.6%	69%
AA 2788 American	BOS 09:26	PHL 11:10	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2764 American Flight history →	BOS 08:03	PHL 09:40	9%	2%	0.6%	91%
B6 1859 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 13:30	PHL 15:08	9%	3%	0.6%	69%
AA 2086 American Flight history →	BOS 11:01	PHL 12:40	9%	2%	0.6%	75%
AA 1776 American Flight history →	BOS 15:20	PHL 16:59	14%	3%	0.6%	72%
AA 2110 American	BOS 18:50	PHL 20:29	18%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON