Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2315 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–18%.

Safest bet that day AA 2315 BOS 07:00 → PHX 09:33 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 514 BOS 17:50 → PHX 20:28 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2315 American Flight history →	BOS 07:00	PHX 09:33	7%	3%	0.6%	90%
AA 1653 American Flight history →	BOS 10:03	PHX 12:29	9%	2%	0.6%	84%
AA 1057 American Flight history →	BOS 13:00	PHX 15:45	10%	3%	0.6%	80%
DL 514 Delta Flight history →	BOS 17:50	PHX 20:28	18%	4%	0.5%	70%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	1h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 09:28 → PHX 10:43DL 2208	7h 48m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019	57m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → PHX 09:44DL 1070	7h 14m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	BOS 09:15 → DTW 11:24DL 1748	1h 23m Detroit	DTW 12:47 → PHX 13:50DL 813	7h 35m	97%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON