Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 479 at 06:27 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 6–15%.

Safest bet that day DL 479 BOS 06:27 → PIT 08:04 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 318 BOS 17:20 → PIT 18:57 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 479 Delta	BOS 06:27	PIT 08:04	3%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 5731 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 11:45	PIT 13:41	5%	1%	0.6%	91%
DL 497 Delta	BOS 08:02	PIT 09:41	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2004 Delta	BOS 10:55	PIT 12:32	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 5680 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 16:15	PIT 18:23	6%	2%	0.6%	81%
DL 5679 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 20:10	PIT 22:13	8%	2%	0.7%	67%
B6 1785 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 15:42	PIT 17:42	11%	3%	0.6%	71%
B6 2185 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 17:53	PIT 19:48	13%	4%	0.6%	62%
DL 318 Delta	BOS 17:20	PIT 18:57	15%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON