Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5622 BOS 08:55 → RIC 10:53 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest B6 781 BOS 15:40 → RIC 17:29 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5622 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 08:55	RIC 10:53	6%	2%	0.6%	89%
B6 1281 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 09:03	RIC 10:57	8%	3%	0.6%	86%
DL 5676 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 21:30	RIC 23:32	8%	3%	0.7%	70%
DL 5665 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 16:10	RIC 18:17	8%	2%	0.6%	79%
B6 781 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 15:40	RIC 17:29	12%	5%	0.6%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON