Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 5–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4171 BOS 09:55 → ROC 11:30 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest YX 4475 BOS 23:30 → ROC 01:27 · 8% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4171 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BOS 09:55	ROC 11:30	5%	1%	0.6%	94%
AA 4709 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 16:19	ROC 17:57	8%	3%	0.6%	76%
YX 4475 Republic	BOS 23:30	ROC 01:27	8%	2%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON