Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: B6 319 at 16:20 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 11–13%.

Safest bet that day B6 319 BOS 16:20 → SAN 19:27 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest DL 571 BOS 17:10 → SAN 20:25 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 319 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 16:20	SAN 19:27	10%	3%	0.6%	79%
B6 219 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:50	SAN 11:55	11%	2%	0.6%	89%
WN 1957 Southwest	BOS 09:09	SAN 12:08	13%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 256 Alaska Flight history →	BOS 11:43	SAN 14:31	13%	2%	0.7%	85%
AS 389 Alaska Flight history →	BOS 01:30	SAN 04:37	13%	1%	0.7%	70%
DL 571 Delta Flight history →	BOS 17:10	SAN 20:25	22%	4%	0.6%	70%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


JetBlue Details →	BOS 05:18 → JFK 06:42B6 717	1h 03m New York	JFK 07:45 → SAN 10:34B6 189	8h 16m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	BOS 08:16 → MSP 10:25DL 1308	1h 13m Minneapolis	MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24DL 2125	8h 08m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019	1h 07m Detroit	DTW 08:45 → SAN 10:27DL 492	7h 57m	97%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON