Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 2889 at 15:40 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 2889 BOS 15:40 → SEA 19:11 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time Riskiest AS 289 BOS 18:01 → SEA 20:49 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2889 Delta Flight history →	BOS 15:40	SEA 19:11	10%	3%	0.6%	71%
DL 332 Delta Flight history →	BOS 11:29	SEA 14:50	10%	3%	0.6%	78%
B6 397 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 19:22	SEA 22:42	11%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 324 Delta Flight history →	BOS 19:29	SEA 23:02	12%	3%	0.5%	67%
AS 215 Alaska Flight history →	BOS 11:16	SEA 13:56	15%	3%	0.6%	64%
AS 306 Alaska Flight history →	BOS 22:27	SEA 01:34	17%	3%	0.6%	60%
AS 459 Alaska Flight history →	BOS 07:03	SEA 10:26	19%	3%	0.6%	75%
AS 289 Alaska	BOS 18:01	SEA 20:49	24%	4%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	8h 04m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	BOS 11:50 → MSP 14:02DL 1103	1h 13m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	8h 10m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	BOS 09:15 → DTW 11:24DL 1748	1h 05m Detroit	DTW 12:29 → SEA 14:29DL 728	8h 14m	95%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON