Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 10 nonstops are 6–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2317 BOS 07:44 → SFO 11:24 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 933 BOS 18:59 → SFO 22:22 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2317 United	BOS 07:44	SFO 11:24	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
B6 633 JetBlue	BOS 06:50	SFO 10:29	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 2400 United Flight history →	BOS 00:04	SFO 03:27	8%	2%	0.6%	57%
UA 726 United	BOS 09:52	SFO 13:12	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
B6 833 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 10:00	SFO 13:38	8%	2%	0.6%	83%
UA 1074 United Flight history →	BOS 11:50	SFO 14:54	9%	3%	0.6%	80%
UA 1367 United Flight history →	BOS 13:51	SFO 17:30	9%	3%	0.6%	84%
B6 733 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 17:00	SFO 20:34	11%	5%	0.7%	59%
B6 413 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 22:25	SFO 01:58	14%	5%	0.7%	31%
B6 933 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 18:59	SFO 22:22	14%	5%	0.7%	71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BOS 07:10 → MSP 09:22DL 1138	1h 38m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074	8h 59m	99%	90%
JetBlue Details →	BOS 05:18 → JFK 06:42B6 717	1h 18m New York	JFK 08:00 → SFO 11:20B6 15	9h 02m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	1h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 09:24 → SFO 11:32DL 2078	8h 37m	99%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON