Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Charlotte Amalie on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte Amalie on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	1h 38m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → STT 13:47DL 1899	8h 17m	100%	80%
American Details →	BOS 05:10 → MIA 08:38AA 1418	1h 23m Miami	MIA 10:01 → STT 13:00AA 943	7h 50m	96%	75%
American Details →	BOS 05:53 → MIA 09:37AA 2980	2h 29m Miami	MIA 12:06 → STT 15:04AA 1391	9h 11m	98%	73%
JetBlue Details →	BOS 08:09 → SJU 12:13B6 861	2h 28m San Juan	SJU 14:41 → STT 15:18B6 936	7h 09m	96%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON