Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 2706 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 2706 BOS 07:00 → TPA 10:18 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest B6 591 BOS 21:03 → TPA 00:22 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2706 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:00	TPA 10:18	6%	2%	0.9%	91%
B6 691 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 06:48	TPA 10:13	8%	2%	0.8%	84%
B6 791 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 11:14	TPA 14:43	17%	3%	1.3%	80%
DL 1439 Delta Flight history →	BOS 16:05	TPA 19:38	18%	8%	1.6%	73%
DL 2234 Delta Flight history →	BOS 18:24	TPA 21:47	20%	9%	1.3%	65%
B6 591 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 21:03	TPA 00:22	24%	8%	1.3%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON