Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 05:55, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Traverse City on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	2h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → TVC 12:54DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	6h 59m	99%	90%
United Details →	BOS 06:00 → ORD 07:58UA 1414	1h 02m Chicago	ORD 09:00 → TVC 11:37UA 4169 · flown by GoJet	5h 37m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019	52m Detroit	DTW 08:30 → TVC 09:45DL 4721 · flown by Endeavor	4h 15m	96%	82%
American Details →	BOS 07:00 → ORD 09:01AA 1509	2h 45m Chicago	ORD 11:46 → TVC 14:04AA 6368 · flown by SkyWest	7h 04m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	BOS 17:15 → DTW 19:39DL 1432	3h 20m Detroit	DTW 22:59 → TVC 00:08 +1DL 2424	6h 53m	98%	82%
United Details →	BOS 15:13 → ORD 17:05UA 1475	2h 08m Chicago	ORD 19:13 → TVC 21:23UA 677	6h 10m	95%	66%
Delta Details →	BOS 11:50 → MSP 14:02DL 1103	1h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 15:25 → TVC 17:55DL 4915 · flown by Endeavor	6h 05m	97%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON