Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:22 am at Boston)

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Valparaiso on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Valparaiso is 1 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 10:45 → VPS 11:02DL 2048	6h 32m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	BOS 16:30 → ATL 19:38DL 399	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 23:06 → VPS 23:23DL 2745	7h 53m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	BOS 08:00 → ATL 10:51DL 923	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 13:50 → VPS 14:00DL 2832	7h 00m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	2h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 10:35 → VPS 13:13DL 2462	8h 18m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	BOS 09:05 → ATL 11:55DL 456	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 15:44 → VPS 16:01DL 2170	7h 56m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	BOS 12:30 → ATL 15:21DL 2779	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803	7h 12m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	BOS 17:55 → ATL 21:07DL 2464	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097	6h 34m	96%	87%
American Details →	BOS 07:11 → CLT 09:38AA 2715	1h 51m Charlotte	CLT 11:29 → VPS 12:11AA 5165 · flown by PSA	6h 00m	94%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BOS 12:04 → CLT 14:15AA 1557	1h 00m Charlotte	CLT 15:15 → VPS 15:57AA 5201 · flown by PSA	4h 53m	69%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON