Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 30%, against 19% on a calm day. Safest: B6 2072 at 16:23, 30%.

Nonstops that day


B6 2072 JetBlue Flight history →	BQN 16:23	FLL 19:12	30%	10%	1.3%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	BQN 00:15 → EWR 04:12UA 1162	2h 48m Newark	EWR 07:00 → FLL 10:05UA 1364	9h 50m	98%	90%
JetBlue Details →	BQN 05:55 → JFK 09:55B6 538	2h 05m New York	JFK 12:00 → FLL 15:10B6 2201	9h 15m	97%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON