Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, B6 538 at 05:58, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


B6 538 JetBlue Flight history →	BQN 05:58	JFK 10:00	10%	6%	0.8%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


JetBlue Details →	BQN 16:21 → FLL 19:01B6 2072	3h 14m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 22:15 → JFK 01:18 +1B6 1902	8h 57m	95%	75%
JetBlue Details →	BQN 10:08 → MCO 13:07B6 729	1h 50m Orlando	MCO 14:57 → JFK 17:44B6 1084	7h 36m	96%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON