Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


B6 729 JetBlue Flight history →	BQN 10:05	MCO 13:02	15%	5%	2.2%	89%
F9 1097 Frontier Flight history →	BQN 12:04	MCO 15:05	17%	5%	2.7%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	BQN 00:15 → EWR 04:12UA 1162	2h 18m Newark	EWR 06:30 → MCO 09:16UA 788	9h 01m	98%	89%
JetBlue Details →	BQN 05:55 → JFK 09:55B6 538	2h 20m New York	JFK 12:15 → MCO 15:10B6 83	9h 15m	97%	71%
JetBlue Details →	BQN 16:23 → FLL 19:12B6 2072	1h 47m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 20:59 → MCO 22:09B6 1948	5h 46m	89%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON