tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:11 am at Buffalo)
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1674 Southwest BUF 09:40 BNA 10:42 9% 2% 0.2% no record
WN 753 Southwest BUF 09:33 BNA 10:33 9% 2% 0.2% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Buffalo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BUF 06:00 → BWI 07:15WN 756 2h 19m Baltimore BWI 09:34 → BNA 10:29WN 882 5h 29m 100% 92%
UnitedDetails → BUF 07:08 → ORD 08:06UA 543 3h 07m Chicago ORD 11:13 → BNA 13:03UA 2414 6h 55m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:05DL 2664 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 6h 30m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → BUF 18:57 → ATL 21:05DL 2050 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 23:00 → BNA 23:15DL 3121 5h 18m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → BUF 12:16 → ATL 14:22DL 1384 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → BNA 16:57DL 1693 5h 41m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:08 → DTW 07:20DL 2898 1h 10m Detroit DTW 08:30 → BNA 09:11DL 2682 4h 03m 93% 86%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:52 → JFK 08:17DL 5284 · flown by Endeavor 3h 21m New York JFK 11:38 → BNA 13:04DL 4662 · flown by Endeavor 7h 12m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → BUF 15:56 → ATL 18:04DL 2266 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 20:20 → BNA 20:31DL 3002 5h 35m 98% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BUF 18:51 → CLT 20:47AA 1486 53m Charlotte CLT 21:40 → BNA 22:15AA 526 4h 24m 74% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON