Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 4–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4788 BUF 07:15 → BOS 08:51 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 4068 BUF 17:39 → BOS 19:15 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4788 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BUF 07:15	BOS 08:51	4%	2%	0.6%	93%
B6 716 JetBlue Flight history →	BUF 06:00	BOS 07:25	5%	2%	0.7%	82%
AA 4666 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BUF 11:41	BOS 13:16	5%	2%	0.6%	94%
B6 916 JetBlue Flight history →	BUF 15:41	BOS 17:28	11%	4%	0.7%	65%
B6 516 JetBlue Flight history →	BUF 18:45	BOS 20:31	11%	6%	0.7%	56%
AA 4068 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BUF 17:39	BOS 19:15	13%	3%	0.6%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON