Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 2–6% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3374 BUF 08:52 → BWI 10:13 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 758 BUF 15:59 → BWI 17:15 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time

Against a calm day 4% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 4% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3374 Southwest	BUF 08:52	BWI 10:13	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 284 Southwest	BUF 06:19	BWI 07:38	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 756 Southwest Flight history →	BUF 06:00	BWI 07:15	3%	1%	0.5%	97%
WN 1156 Southwest	BUF 12:01	BWI 13:19	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 758 Southwest Flight history →	BUF 15:59	BWI 17:15	6%	2%	0.5%	90%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON