tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Midway, leaving 12:34, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Denver on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1727 United Flight history → BUF 09:00 DEN 10:35 6% 2% 0.6% 86%
WN 4564 Southwest BUF 16:14 DEN 17:45 11% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Buffalo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → BUF 05:20 → PHL 06:46AA 5873 · flown by Piedmont 2h 01m Philadelphia PHL 08:47 → DEN 11:57AA 1313 8h 37m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:05DL 2664 1h 49m Atlanta ATL 09:54 → DEN 11:05DL 995 7h 05m 99% 91%
SouthwestDetails → BUF 06:00 → BWI 07:15WN 756 3h 55m Baltimore BWI 11:10 → DEN 12:50WN 4894 8h 50m 100% 90%
JetBlueDetails → BUF 06:00 → BOS 07:25B6 716 1h 56m Boston BOS 09:21 → DEN 11:44B6 393 7h 44m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42DL 2898 58m Detroit DTW 08:40 → DEN 09:47DL 1113 5h 18m 94% 88%
UnitedDetails → BUF 07:06 → ORD 07:55UA 543 3h 01m Chicago ORD 10:56 → DEN 12:34UA 2857 7h 28m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → BUF 12:16 → ATL 14:22DL 1384 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 16:43 → DEN 17:56DL 519 7h 40m 99% 85%
SouthwestDetails → BUF 12:34 → MDW 13:10WN 766 3h 11m Chicago MDW 16:21 → DEN 17:47WN 274 7h 13m 98% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BUF 10:44 → PHL 12:10AA 5925 · flown by Piedmont 51m Philadelphia PHL 13:01 → DEN 15:12AA 2082 6h 28m 75% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON