Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 882 American Flight history →	BUF 07:01	DFW 09:25	6%	3%	0.6%	87%
AA 1724 American Flight history →	BUF 16:47	DFW 18:56	10%	4%	0.6%	60%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Buffalo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	BUF 05:20 → PHL 06:46AA 5873 · flown by Piedmont	1h 41m Philadelphia	PHL 08:27 → DFW 11:10AA 3307	6h 50m	98%	90%
American Details →	BUF 07:15 → BOS 08:51AA 4788 · flown by Republic	1h 33m Boston	BOS 10:24 → DFW 13:20AA 701	7h 05m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:05DL 2664	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 09:52 → DFW 11:12DL 961	6h 12m	99%	90%
American Details →	BUF 06:01 → CLT 08:01AA 1204	3h 10m Charlotte	CLT 11:11 → DFW 12:49AA 2747	7h 48m	98%	90%
American Details →	BUF 11:37 → DCA 13:21AA 4647 · flown by Republic	3h 50m Washington	DCA 17:11 → DFW 19:41AA 1414	9h 04m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	BUF 17:12 → ATL 19:23DL 2266	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → DFW 00:13 +1DL 818	8h 01m	100%	89%
United Details →	BUF 07:07 → ORD 07:57UA 543	2h 28m Chicago	ORD 10:25 → DFW 13:08UA 441	7h 01m	98%	89%
American Details →	BUF 16:20 → CLT 18:13AA 2442	3h 55m Charlotte	CLT 22:08 → DFW 23:49AA 1256	8h 29m	99%	88%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BUF 18:04 → ORD 19:03UA 2747	47m Chicago	ORD 19:50 → DFW 22:36UA 1673	5h 32m	64%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON