Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 6–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2898 BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest OO 3856 BUF 19:44 → DTW 20:51 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2898 Delta Flight history →	BUF 06:29	DTW 07:42	6%	2%	0.6%	90%
OO 3841 SkyWest	BUF 09:08	DTW 10:25	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 3861 SkyWest	BUF 12:07	DTW 13:26	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 3848 SkyWest	BUF 12:17	DTW 13:34	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 3863 SkyWest	BUF 08:59	DTW 10:13	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 3847 SkyWest	BUF 15:55	DTW 17:12	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 3870 SkyWest	BUF 16:06	DTW 17:16	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 3856 SkyWest	BUF 19:44	DTW 20:51	10%	2%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON