tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 4270 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record BUF 19:52 IAD 21:15 18% 9% 3.9% 82%
UA 4291 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record BUF 15:00 IAD 16:23 21% 10% 2.9% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42DL 2898 1h 08m Detroit DTW 08:50 → IAD 10:23DL 2884 3h 54m 97% 91%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:05DL 2664 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → IAD 11:37DL 1444 5h 37m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → BUF 07:06 → ORD 07:55UA 543 2h 54m Chicago ORD 10:49 → IAD 13:45UA 1486 6h 39m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → BUF 12:16 → ATL 14:22DL 1384 3h 43m Atlanta ATL 18:05 → IAD 19:54DL 1309 7h 38m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → BUF 17:12 → ATL 19:23DL 2266 3h 30m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549 7h 29m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → BUF 18:04 → ORD 19:03UA 2747 3h 04m Chicago ORD 22:07 → IAD 01:10 +1UA 1922 7h 06m 94% 83%
AmericanDetails → BUF 07:01 → DFW 09:25AA 882 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:16 → IAD 14:31AA 524 7h 30m 91% 81%
AmericanDetails → BUF 12:52 → CLT 14:50AA 1203 1h 16m Charlotte CLT 16:06 → IAD 17:44AA 5447 · flown by PSA 4h 52m 94% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUF 18:04 → ORD 19:03UA 2747 54m Chicago ORD 19:57 → IAD 22:52UA 304 4h 48m 74% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON