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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: American via Philadelphia, leaving 05:20, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Buffalo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → BUF 05:20 → PHL 06:46AA 5873 · flown by Piedmont 3h 17m Philadelphia PHL 10:03 → LAX 12:37AA 824 10h 17m 98% 92%
AmericanDetails → BUF 06:01 → CLT 08:01AA 1204 3h 58m Charlotte CLT 11:59 → LAX 13:50AA 2005 10h 49m 98% 91%
JetBlueDetails → BUF 06:00 → BOS 07:25B6 716 3h 35m Boston BOS 11:00 → LAX 14:09B6 1487 11h 09m 100% 91%
SouthwestDetails → BUF 06:00 → BWI 07:15WN 756 1h 52m Baltimore BWI 09:07 → LAX 11:36WN 1003 8h 36m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → BUF 10:00 → JFK 11:24DL 5426 · flown by Endeavor 3h 33m New York JFK 14:57 → LAX 17:54DL 771 10h 54m 99% 89%
JetBlueDetails → BUF 06:40 → JFK 08:05B6 2001 1h 37m New York JFK 09:42 → LAX 12:30B6 223 8h 50m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → BUF 09:00 → DEN 10:35UA 1727 2h 51m Denver DEN 13:26 → LAX 14:57UA 774 8h 57m 99% 89%
JetBlueDetails → BUF 12:19 → JFK 13:55B6 1901 2h 40m New York JFK 16:35 → LAX 19:24B6 623 10h 05m 99% 89%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUF 13:54 → ORD 14:55UA 4381 · flown by GoJet 52m Chicago ORD 15:47 → LAX 18:20UA 576 7h 26m 64% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON