Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, DL 1749 at 19:17, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 1749 Delta	BUF 19:17	MSP 20:28	9%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Buffalo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42DL 2898	1h 18m Detroit	DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258	4h 25m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:05DL 2664	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:30DL 2090	6h 30m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	BUF 17:12 → ATL 19:23DL 2266	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310	8h 27m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	BUF 07:00 → JFK 08:30DL 5284 · flown by Endeavor	3h 05m New York	JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414	7h 50m	98%	88%
United Details →	BUF 09:00 → DEN 10:35UA 1727	3h 07m Denver	DEN 13:42 → MSP 16:46UA 732	8h 46m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	BUF 06:05 → LGA 07:32DL 4670 · flown by Endeavor	3h 38m New York	LGA 11:10 → MSP 13:10DL 2409	8h 05m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	BUF 12:16 → ATL 14:22DL 1384	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 17:38 → MSP 19:15DL 2981	7h 59m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	BUF 12:34 → MDW 13:10WN 766	1h 27m Chicago	MDW 14:37 → MSP 16:00WN 1456	4h 26m	95%	86%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BUF 18:04 → ORD 19:03UA 2747	54m Chicago	ORD 19:57 → MSP 21:41UA 2005	4h 37m	74%	63%
Delta Details →	BUF 14:30 → LGA 15:58DL 5362 · flown by Endeavor	1h 04m New York	LGA 17:02 → MSP 18:43DL 2349	5h 13m	72%	56%
United Details →	BUF 13:54 → ORD 14:55UA 4381 · flown by GoJet	57m Chicago	ORD 15:52 → MSP 17:20UA 1935	4h 26m	70%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON