Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 5–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day PT 6131 BUF 07:11 → PHL 08:45 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest PT 5809 BUF 17:17 → PHL 18:50 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


PT 6131 Piedmont	BUF 07:11	PHL 08:45	5%	3%	0.8%	no record
PT 5861 Piedmont	BUF 06:15	PHL 07:47	6%	3%	0.8%	no record
PT 5933 Piedmont	BUF 10:49	PHL 12:21	7%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 5868 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	BUF 10:54	PHL 12:26	7%	2%	0.8%	80%
PT 5800 Piedmont	BUF 13:03	PHL 14:36	7%	3%	0.8%	no record
PT 5914 Piedmont	BUF 15:01	PHL 16:28	8%	3%	0.8%	no record
PT 5804 Piedmont	BUF 15:04	PHL 16:35	8%	3%	0.8%	no record
PT 5836 Piedmont	BUF 18:13	PHL 19:47	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
PT 5809 Piedmont	BUF 17:17	PHL 18:50	9%	3%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON