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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching San Juan on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:05DL 2664 1h 40m Atlanta ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32DL 1882 7h 32m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → BUF 05:20 → PHL 06:46AA 5873 · flown by Piedmont 2h 42m Philadelphia PHL 09:28 → SJU 13:49AA 1977 8h 29m 98% 88%
SouthwestDetails → BUF 06:00 → BWI 07:15WN 756 1h 12m Baltimore BWI 08:27 → SJU 12:58WN 441 6h 58m 97% 87%
AmericanDetails → BUF 06:01 → CLT 08:01AA 1204 3h 02m Charlotte CLT 11:03 → SJU 14:50AA 783 8h 49m 98% 86%
JetBlueDetails → BUF 06:40 → JFK 08:05B6 2001 1h 55m New York JFK 10:00 → SJU 14:14B6 503 7h 34m 98% 81%
JetBlueDetails → BUF 06:57 → FLL 09:58B6 865 1h 47m Fort Lauderdale FLL 11:45 → SJU 14:33B6 1553 7h 36m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → BUF 07:07 → ORD 08:01UA 543 48m Chicago ORD 08:49 → SJU 14:44UA 1996 7h 37m 86% 77%
JetBlueDetails → BUF 12:19 → JFK 13:55B6 1901 1h 53m New York JFK 15:48 → SJU 19:55B6 803 7h 36m 98% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON