Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1017 at 08:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 1017 BUF 08:01 → TPA 10:58 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3119 BUF 16:20 → TPA 19:05 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1017 Southwest	BUF 08:01	TPA 10:58	6%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 2545 Southwest	BUF 08:02	TPA 11:03	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 3119 Southwest	BUF 16:20	TPA 19:05	19%	4%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON