Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: United via SFO, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Baltimore on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	BUR 07:00 → SFO 08:28UA 488	1h 05m San Francisco	SFO 09:33 → BWI 17:57UA 2664	7h 57m	91%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON