Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 07:53, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Dallas on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 2 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BUR 07:53 → LAS 09:05WN 786	1h 24m Las Vegas	LAS 10:29 → DAL 15:02WN 245	5h 09m	100%	87%
Southwest Details →	BUR 17:03 → PHX 18:44WN 824	48m Phoenix	PHX 19:32 → DAL 23:51WN 1765	4h 48m	86%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON