Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 3–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 779 BUR 07:01 → DEN 10:21 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2187 BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 779 Southwest	BUR 07:01	DEN 10:21	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
UA 1899 United	BUR 08:47	DEN 12:17	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 781 Southwest	BUR 11:13	DEN 14:25	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 956 Southwest	BUR 13:42	DEN 16:54	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 2187 United Flight history →	BUR 12:48	DEN 16:16	12%	5%	0.6%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON