Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, AS 3259 at 12:14, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AS 3259 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BUR 12:14	EUG 14:24	11%	6%	0.7%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BUR 07:53 → LAS 09:05WN 786	1h 43m Las Vegas	LAS 10:48 → EUG 12:55WN 4763	5h 02m	100%	87%
Alaska Details →	BUR 18:10 → PDX 20:25AS 649	1h 21m Portland	PDX 21:46 → EUG 22:51AS 3043 · flown by SkyWest	4h 41m	94%	87%
United Details →	BUR 10:53 → SFO 12:21UA 2386	3h 57m San Francisco	SFO 16:18 → EUG 17:58UA 502	7h 05m	99%	82%
Alaska Details →	BUR 18:13 → SEA 20:54AS 537	1h 55m Seattle	SEA 22:49 → EUG 23:59AS 2047 · flown by Horizon	5h 46m	92%	82%
Alaska Details →	BUR 11:14 → SEA 13:46AS 1388	2h 04m Seattle	SEA 15:50 → EUG 17:00AS 2338 · flown by Horizon	5h 46m	93%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON