Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 15:56, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BUR 15:56 → LAS 17:09WN 792	1h 19m Las Vegas	LAS 18:28 → HOU 23:27WN 165	5h 31m	96%	80%
Southwest Details →	BUR 07:53 → LAS 09:05WN 786	2h 54m Las Vegas	LAS 11:59 → HOU 16:52WN 2174	6h 59m	100%	80%
American Details →	BUR 12:30 → DFW 17:42AA 1208	1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:43 → HOU 20:04AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	5h 34m	77%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON