tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 12:35, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUR 12:35 → SLC 15:33DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 2h 12m Salt Lake City SLC 17:45 → IAH 21:50DL 2514 7h 15m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → BUR 07:00 → SFO 08:28UA 488 3h 47m San Francisco SFO 12:15 → IAH 18:27UA 1387 9h 27m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → BUR 07:00 → SLC 10:01DL 2582 3h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 13:45 → IAH 17:53DL 1299 8h 53m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → BUR 10:53 → SFO 12:21UA 2386 2h 04m San Francisco SFO 14:25 → IAH 20:26UA 2831 7h 33m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187 3h 19m Denver DEN 19:35 → IAH 23:06UA 475 8h 18m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453 1h 49m San Francisco SFO 17:02 → IAH 22:52UA 1649 7h 07m 93% 82%
DeltaDetails → BUR 13:55 → ATL 21:42DL 483 1h 06m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601 8h 02m 87% 76%
AmericanDetails → BUR 12:30 → DFW 17:42AA 1208 2h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:04 → IAH 21:21AA 1392 6h 51m 95% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → BUR 07:14 → SEA 09:58AS 491 54m Seattle SEA 10:52 → IAH 17:16AS 438 8h 02m 72% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON