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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 12:35, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Indianapolis on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUR 12:35 → SLC 15:33DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 2h 17m Salt Lake City SLC 17:50 → IND 22:59DL 2228 7h 24m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → BUR 13:55 → ATL 21:42DL 483 1h 22m Atlanta ATL 23:04 → IND 00:41 +1DL 2657 7h 46m 91% 82%
UnitedDetails → BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187 1h 37m Denver DEN 17:53 → IND 22:30UA 1199 6h 42m 95% 80%
UnitedDetails → BUR 07:00 → SFO 08:28UA 488 1h 33m San Francisco SFO 10:01 → IND 17:22UA 2274 7h 22m 96% 80%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 07:53 → LAS 09:05WN 786 1h 15m Las Vegas LAS 10:20 → IND 16:55WN 2308 6h 02m 100% 80%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 09:15 → DEN 12:34WN 2045 1h 28m Denver DEN 14:02 → IND 18:33WN 1623 6h 18m 96% 78%
AmericanDetails → BUR 07:01 → DFW 12:19AA 2599 3h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:08 → IND 19:28AA 1413 9h 27m 99% 74%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 18:13 → SEA 20:54AS 537 1h 45m Seattle SEA 22:39 → IND 05:44 +1AS 624 8h 31m 91% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON