Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 786 at 07:53 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 7–9%.

Safest bet that day WN 786 BUR 07:53 → LAS 09:05 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest F9 4108 BUR 13:11 → LAS 14:32 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 786 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 07:53	LAS 09:05	3%	1%	1.2%	100%
WN 225 Southwest	BUR 06:57	LAS 08:05	4%	1%	1.2%	no record
WN 162 Southwest	BUR 09:02	LAS 10:09	6%	1%	1.2%	no record
WN 914 Southwest	BUR 19:01	LAS 20:09	7%	5%	0.9%	no record
WN 594 Southwest	BUR 16:34	LAS 17:43	9%	5%	1.0%	no record
WN 792 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 15:56	LAS 17:09	9%	4%	0.9%	61%
WN 803 Southwest	BUR 12:28	LAS 13:35	10%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 2743 Southwest	BUR 14:47	LAS 15:56	11%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 174 Southwest	BUR 12:04	LAS 13:13	12%	3%	0.9%	no record
F9 4108 Frontier Flight history →	BUR 13:11	LAS 14:32	19%	6%	2.2%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON