Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: United via Denver, leaving 12:48, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187	1h 19m Denver	DEN 17:35 → LGA 23:30UA 2033	7h 42m	92%	77%
American Details →	BUR 07:01 → DFW 12:19AA 2599	3h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:14 → LGA 20:57AA 610	10h 56m	99%	76%
American Details →	BUR 12:30 → DFW 17:42AA 1208	1h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:07 → LGA 23:56AA 1375	8h 26m	84%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON