Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 16:54, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Miami on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BUR 16:54 → SLC 19:50DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest	3h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:00 → MIA 05:40 +1DL 2040	9h 46m	99%	88%
United Details →	BUR 07:00 → SFO 08:28UA 488	3h 59m San Francisco	SFO 12:27 → MIA 21:08UA 1458	11h 08m	100%	76%
American Details →	BUR 12:30 → DFW 17:42AA 1208	2h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:31 → MIA 00:28 +1AA 2090	8h 58m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	BUR 13:55 → ATL 21:42DL 483	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	8h 00m	89%	74%
American Details →	BUR 07:01 → DFW 12:19AA 2599	3h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:36 → MIA 19:36AA 942	9h 35m	99%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON