Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 562 BUR 07:09 → PDX 09:27 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AS 1550 BUR 14:28 → PDX 16:38 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 562 Alaska Flight history →	BUR 07:09	PDX 09:27	5%	2%	1.2%	96%
AS 649 Alaska Flight history →	BUR 18:10	PDX 20:25	10%	3%	0.9%	86%
AS 1550 Alaska	BUR 14:28	PDX 16:38	11%	3%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON